Why you should know about the Stockdale Paradox
I got a bit carried away when I wrote about hope, and I nearly diverted off into a segway on the Stockdale Paradox - I held back and as promised, have given it a post all of its own.
First up, I want to define paradox - because it's so easy to fling words about without clarity on the definition and what we mean when a phrase is used (I got into real trouble with using the word 'widget' recently - long story and won't be making any email topic soon). A paradox is a seemingly absurd or contradictory statement or proposition which, when investigated, may prove to be well-founded or true.' I love the balance and duality and grey areas that come with our work, so how we manage these is something that gets me quite inspired.
The Stockdale Paradox is a phrase that was coined in Jim Collins' book Good to Great and is named for Admiral Stockdale and his thoughts and conversations during his time as a prisoner of war. The main idea is that you need to balance realism with optimism. The most frequently cited quote and overarching description is
"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."
The concept is that for success, you have to balance the duality of having hope in your ability to overcome, get through and survive with the honesty and insight into where you are at right now. You need to acknowledge your situation and then balance the likelihood (if not certainty) of failure with a constant belief that there will be a successful outcome. It's no good to only think in terms of optimism and positivity (in fact, Stockdale says the ones who didn't survive the time in the POW camp were the optimists). The optimism has to be held in balance with the chaos or poor state you are in.
I've searched for the best video that gives more background to the Admiral Stockdale story and how it became part of the Good to Great elements for Jim Collins. This article has a great description, plus a short video from Jim Collins and gives you the context and more details of the development of the idea.
The idea correlates with another prisoner's story - that of Viktor Frankl, who wrote about his time in a concentration camp in his book Man's Search for Meaning. This also relays the stories of optimism alone being detrimental. He noticed more people died in the lead-up to Christmas - many people would dream that their ordeal would be over by Christmas, and as the time approached, the realisation that the dream was not going to be a reality had a 'dangerous influence on their powers of resilience and a great number died.' From this work came the idea of tragic optimism. This article also takes the Stockdale Paradox and connects it with Viktor Frankl's work.
The Stockdale Paradox is a management concept. Being honest about the state of your ward, unit, or organisation is crucial for making the right plans to achieve your purpose. Pretending or fooling yourself that all is going great, and not facing up to where the challenges or issues are, won't lead to positive action. Believing you can make a difference, and build on through the tough times and the challenges that get thrown at you - that is the duality and the hope.
It is also a personal philosophy in how you approach your own way of being. It creates a sense of staying grounded in reality and hopeful about the possibilities. It's not choosing optimism over pessimism but embracing both feelings in opposition to one another and realising they are connected and both necessary.
Another book that takes the optimist/pessimist and again reframes it is Factfullness by Han Rosling (check out one of his TED talks - great viewing). In this book, he describes himself as a possibilist, and while reading more on the Stockdale Paradox, it was a phrase that I was reminded of.
There is one more step for me beyond holding the hope and the despair together. It is the higher purpose and greater good meaning. Stockdale talks about how, despite the torture and never knowing for sure if he was going to get out of the camp, it was 'the defining event of his life that in retrospect he would not trade.' Living through despair, struggle, and chaos can become stories of encouragement and inspiration for others. Victor Frankl's work, again, is similar in that there was the belief that the time of awfulness would benefit a higher purpose.
Honestly own where you are at, hold onto hope, hold onto it firmly and in the true awareness and realistic assessment of your current situation. Despite how bad things feel, and how chaotic and uncertain things seem. Do you know that you'll likely fail along the way, and also believe that you'll come through, and when you do, what will be the purpose and meaning you assign to that time?
